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Croc

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Cool picture but I call Photoshop on that picture. Unless the wings were removed from the planes beyond the first one (and its right wing) the tails could not be that close together.

 

 

Sorry, Skip...not photo shopped. Real deal. I’m on an aviation forum (Pro Pilot World) where we aviation guys and gals hang out. Some of my fellow members (airline pilots) are posting photos of parked airliners from all over the country. Aviation industry is all but shut down right now. Airlines parking aircraft wherever they can. Google ‘aircraft parked’ and you’ll pull up several photos of the current situation in the airline industry. Here’s a few more....

 

7012B9A6-60C4-4542-84AA-D3D9462B1D3C.jpg

 

30EA9287-1332-4EDB-95C8-25AE013CB320.jpg

 

5F84A472-B968-45E0-AB3A-0847617578B9.jpg

 

3D8C0620-AC9B-43B4-BFD6-2B41DC9AD166.jpg

Edited by xcarguy
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Apparently you can't just park them and forget them. They need to be maintained to some degree on an ongoing basis. So engines have to be fired up, hydraulics checked, even the tires have to be tended to.

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It’s not good for anything mechanical to sit for an extended period of time. Airlines will have procedures for bringing aircraft back on line....maintenance personnel will be busy when the cogs start turning again.

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Jet engines form commercial aircraft (A320 up to A380j need to run every 7 days. Otherwise they need to be preserved by sealing them with covers on the front and back or in a bag with desiccant and humidity indicators. If you are not going to run them for 7 days there are methods to preserve for short and long term storage. The biggest risk is corrosion within the bearing compartment.

 

My customers (commercial airlines in Asia) are flying about 10% of their number of hours they typically fly. A majority are essentially completely grounded. A flag carrier in my region usually flies 48-50,000 passengers on a Sunday. They told us they flew 274 people on a recent Sunday!

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Excel graph of US deaths of COVID-19 over last 30 days:

4F1E6223-79BC-4555-8D93-8A3941686BE0.jpg

 

Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear to me to be flattening just yet, but thankfully the rate has slowed a bit from a couple weeks ago.

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I have been doing my own analysis and the main problem has been that the US numbers have been dominated by New York state. Now that New York is stabilizing I am seeing that the other states are ramping up, more than making up for improvements in New York. It is going to be a long summer sitting inside looking out! Opening up the redneck states isn't going to make the situation any better.

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Here we have USA and New York on the same page:

USA.pngNew York.png

Notice how New York accounts for a third of the US data in the beginning and then they diverge.

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I, too, would like to see more case flattening, but I'm really thankful it hasn't gone vertical or been more widespread and hope that will continue to be the case. Also hoping the rate of growth continues to taper, I really need a haircut soon!

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I have been doing my own analysis and the main problem has been that the US numbers have been dominated by New York state. Now that New York is stabilizing I am seeing that the other states are ramping up, more than making up for improvements in New York.

 

The only way to look at it will be to remove the time variable and look at it state by state. Ideally you would look at it by population center or town as they often straddle state borders but the data is not collected that way so state based it has to be. Each population center is progressing through this with different start and end dates. Its only starting to hit some rural communities now. Yet to really make it to Wyoming. Some of these communities did not act to lock down so it will not be pretty in places.

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The only way to look at it will be to remove the time variable and look at it state by state. Ideally you would look at it by population center or town as they often straddle state borders but the data is not collected that way so state based it has to be. Each population center is progressing through this with different start and end dates. Its only starting to hit some rural communities now. Yet to really make it to Wyoming. Some of these communities did not act to lock down so it will not be pretty in places.

 

A couple of isolated cases are the Diamond Princess and the USS Roosevelt. Both had 100% or nearly 100% testing. The infection rate on the Diamond Princess was 21% for the passengers with median age of 69 and 15% among crew with median age of 36, zero death rate for crew and 1% death rate for passengers. For the Roosevelt the infection rate was 14.5% with one death, a guy in his 40s. Just guessing that the average age of the crew is under 30. In both cases the majority of those infected were asymptomatic. It is likely that in both cases one person infected the whole ship.

 

New York City, with a population of 8.4 million has over 15,000 death so far. If you assume an infection rate of 15%, you get 1,260,00 infected and a death rate of 1.2%. Hmmm.

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They tested everyone in a large Ohio prison a few days ago (2,000 inmates) and roughly 80% were infected, tho no reported deaths. Apparently if death occurs, it happens about a month after infection so maybe dire news is in the future? Or not, who knows?

 

They did a fairly random test of 3000 people on the West Coast recently and infected rate was 50-80x as high as the expected rate based on projections founded on the sparse testing up to that point.

 

All of which suggest everyone is really guessing when they try to base assessments on very incomplete testing.

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