Trump on the list? What if? And cookies!

[wdb]

Back on Trump-ic. He came out advocating that the pubs vote to release the Epstein files.

[speedwagon]

Of  course, there are no bad files left. Remember tricky Dick? white wash by the loyal followers.

 

 

f

[SENC]

Great advice from Mike, agree totally.  Invest for 7%/year gains over the long run, and double your money every 10 years.  Invest money you know you'll have no use for in the next 3-5 years... and forget about it, whether up big or down.  If there is money you know you'll need in the next few years, squirrel that away into whatever short-term instruments offer the least risk (knowing you'll get much lower returns, targeting to at least match inflation).

 

To the specific question, I agree the danger is in trying to guess market timing (and causes).  In all likelihood, something other than what you expect will drive a major market move, and it could be in the opposite direction.  Take a more disciplined approach... make a long-term decision on what your "cash" position should be to make you comfortable.  That can be a range, say 3%-10% (not a specific recommendation), that gives you the ability to be more or less exposed/poised to buy.  At 10%, for example, you'd need your other 90% investments to earn 8%+ to hit/exceed your target of 7% overall (if that 10% was truly in cash rather than earning something itself).

 

Personally, I'm at the lowest end of my range most of the time.  I'd rather have money working for me than sitting and waiting... and by having a good bit of dividend-producing stocks plus periodically selling investments to re-balance, there is always some cash to buy when opportunities present. 

 

As for buying/selling, my best advice is to average-in or average-out... ie., if you have $50k cash to invest or want to raise $50k in cash from investments, do it over a period of weeks or months rather than all at once.

Edited November 18, 2025 by SENC

[speedwagon]

Back to the original question.  An S&P Index fund (one with a very low operating cost) is the best way to avoid the risk of downturns. Look up a chart for the S&P and I would bet that if you could have bought it in early 1929 and kept till today, you would be considered very wise. If you want to learn-- start studying the market, Books about Warren Buffet, and one by Alexander Graham would be wonderful if you can find them.  Then take a small amount and practice (no more than you could gamble on the lottery with).  If you do good with a small amount , only then raise the anti a tad. but keep your "insurance" in a safe (for you) place. But a well managed S&P 500 indexfund is the best hedge against both a market down turn and a currency devalue loss. Unless you are willing to take risks- and that is called "gambling".

[IamScotticus]

I'm disappointed.  I try to stir up yackety-yack on everyone's favorite orange puncing bag but nobody wants to take a jab.

[mrmustang]

1 hour ago, IamScotticus said:

I'm disappointed.  I try to stir up yackety-yack on everyone's favorite orange puncing bag but nobody wants to take a jab.

A tough room to read, perhaps change your tactics 

[Vovchandr]

22 minutes ago, mrmustang said:

A tough room to read, perhaps change your tactics 

 

Maybe find a 12 year old post and give it a good bump?

[Croc]

33 minutes ago, Vovchandr said:

 

Maybe find a 12 year old post and give it a good bump?

 

I guarantee Epstein would think of that statement in a way you were not intending!  

[mrmustang]

3 hours ago, Croc said:

 

I guarantee Epstein would think of that statement in a way you were not intending!  

Damn, that was a good one 

 

Oh wait, too soon 

Edited November 19, 2025 by mrmustang

[IamScotticus]

I find it ironic that the prez will release the files on national toilet day