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Croc

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xcarguy

xcarguy

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I just received a note from a Canadian pal in his cabin near North Bay, in isolation, snowed in with his wife...

 

 

“We are a week into self-isolation and it is really upsetting me to witness my wife standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks.

 

 

“It breaks my heart to see her like this. I have thought very hard about how I can cheer her up.

 

 

“I have even considered letting her in - but rules are rules.”

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Anker

Anker

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The reports in the press have not shown useful data, just total numbers of cases and deaths. To try to make sense and gain some knowledge I created my own spreadsheet that massages the numbers:

 

[TABLE=width: 393]

[TR]

[TD]Country[/TD]

[TD]Total cases[/TD]

[TD]New cases[/TD]

[TD]Cases per 1M[/TD]

[TD]New Cases %[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Turkey[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3629[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1196[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Belgium[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6235[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1298[/TD]

[TD=align: right]538[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]USA[/TD]

[TD=align: right]85435[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17224[/TD]

[TD=align: right]258[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Austria[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6909[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1321[/TD]

[TD=align: right]767[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]UK[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11658[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2129[/TD]

[TD=align: right]172[/TD]

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Canada[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4043[/TD]

[TD=align: right]634[/TD]

[TD=align: right]107[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Portugal[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3544[/TD]

[TD=align: right]549[/TD]

[TD=align: right]348[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Germany[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43938[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6615[/TD]

[TD=align: right]524[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Brazil[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2985[/TD]

[TD=align: right]431[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Spain[/TD]

[TD=align: right]57786[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8271[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1236[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Netherlands[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7431[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1019[/TD]

[TD=align: right]434[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]France[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29155[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3922[/TD]

[TD=align: right]447[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Australia[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3050[/TD]

[TD=align: right]374[/TD]

[TD=align: right]120[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Israel[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2693[/TD]

[TD=align: right]324[/TD]

[TD=align: right]311[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Sweden[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2840[/TD]

[TD=align: right]314[/TD]

[TD=align: right]281[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Norway[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3372[/TD]

[TD=align: right]288[/TD]

[TD=align: right]622[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Denmark[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1877[/TD]

[TD=align: right]153[/TD]

[TD=align: right]324[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Iran[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29406[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2389[/TD]

[TD=align: right]350[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Switzerland[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11811[/TD]

[TD=align: right]914[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1365[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Italy[/TD]

[TD=align: right]80589[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6203[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1333[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]S Korea[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9241[/TD]

[TD=align: right]131[/TD]

[TD=align: right]180[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]China[/TD]

[TD=align: right]81285[/TD]

[TD=align: right]67[/TD]

[TD=align: right]56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

The first two columns are raw data that really don't tell you anything. The fourth, New Cases %, shows the new cases as a percentage of all cases. This normalizes the data for population size. Now it starts show something useful. Even though the US has the highest number of cases, it is "only" the third worst in new cases as a percentage of the total cases. Basically we are out of control, but not as much as Turkey and Belgium. At the opposite end of the spreadsheet it shows good news for Italy because there are few new cases, even though the total number of cases is very high, so they are getting the situation stabilized.

 

The third column, cases per 1M shows how big a percentage of total population is currently a case. If it is low, you either haven't started seeing the infections explode, or you have gone through the peak and you have the situation under control. South Korea and China are in the best shape. But this doesn't mean that they are in the clear, because nobody knows, for any country, how big a percentage has become immune. If it is low, then when you relax your control you go into a second wave, or a third, or a fourth....

 

The US numbers are very bad and I think we are in for a really bad summer, especially if we go back to business as usual by Easter Sunday.

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Kitcat

Kitcat

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The USA numbers are also misleading since they are based on incomplete testing. Now that testing is finally, although slowly, ramping up, we may have accurate numbers in a few weeks. But at the moment our country has significantly under counted the number of cases. For example, in Ohio, where I live, the governor's office suggests that there are 100x more cases than counted thus far. So although 867 have been verified via test, we likely have 86,700. And see NY City where the numbers have exploded, as has the testing.

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xcarguy

xcarguy

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The USA numbers are also misleading since they are based on incomplete testing. Now that testing is finally, although slowly, ramping up, we may have accurate numbers in a few weeks. But at the moment our country has significantly under counted the number of cases. For example, in Ohio, where I live, the governor's office suggests that there are 100x more cases than counted thus far. So although 867 have been verified via test, we likely have 86,700. And see NY City where the numbers have exploded, as has the testing.

 

That’s a scary, and very sobering, thought.

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Anker

Anker

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My daughter just pointed me to an article about Iceland, where they are in the process of testing everybody. Their new case to known case percentage is in line with the Scandinavian countries, but their cases per 1M is 7 times higher, which implies that the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases is roughly 1 to 10. Given that most places in the US aren't even testing the symptomatic cases the real number of infected people must be more than 10 times as large as the reported cases, which, in turn, leads to the conclusion that we have at least 1 million unknown cases. You can easily imagine what will happen if social distancing is abolished!

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Croc

Croc

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The USA numbers are also misleading since they are based on incomplete testing. Now that testing is finally, although slowly, ramping up, we may have accurate numbers in a few weeks. But at the moment our country has significantly under counted the number of cases. For example, in Ohio, where I live, the governor's office suggests that there are 100x more cases than counted thus far. So although 867 have been verified via test, we likely have 86,700. And see NY City where the numbers have exploded, as has the testing.

 

 

New York has taken the view that testing allows a determination of additional separation, i.e. you keep the afflected and unafflicted away from each other. So they have been testing like crazy. However, the rest of the country has not really taken that approach so the numbers remain low.

 

What troubles me is that this will ripple across the country. I have been talking with a person in Denver a few times this week. They are in their office working. There is no lockdown like what you get in the NY area. So you just have to expect that their turn is coming as the infection process and level of alarm rolls into the center of the country. There are vast swathes of the US that are several weeks behind NY. Its that type of rolling country wide infection process will keep the whole country under reinfection risk for a very long time. Despite all the boasting, China is still dealing with reinfection breakouts.

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Kitcat

Kitcat

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I just read a story about a hospital in southern Indiana (abut 50 miles from me) that is currently unable to get badly needed test kits. Why? Because their virus numbers are so low in that rural area. And, the test kits are in such short supply that they are being rationed to areas of much higher need. So the doctor at the hospital asked the feds, how do we show what our infection rate really is? Advice-only by testing....

 

Yes, Croc, NYC, where you unfortunately are, is where the rest of the country is headed. Among the many scary aspects of this in NYC is that, in addition to inadequate supplies (test kits, ventilators, masks, protective clothing, etc.) so many front line personnel, including doctors and nurses, are getting infected that many are unable to continue to work, leaving the medical community even more short staffed and patients under served.

 

In China, that was the experience as well. Then they seriously ramped up the protections for their medical staff and no further medical personnel were infected. Unfortunately, so far, we always seem to be one step behind the virus in every aspect, including having a well equipped, robust medical response.

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SENC

SENC

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That’s a scary, and very sobering, thought.

 

Actually, that would be exceptionally good news, in that mortality and complication rates would be much, much lower and we'd have a larger population than expected with antibodies.

 

I suspect, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in between. Our testing and mitigation efforts, in most parts of the country, are actually pretty good - we'll see whether they yield good results or whether we all face a NYC-type of crisis. Either way, I don't think we're headed towards the hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths as predicted by some of the commentary that went viral - at least I hope not!

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Sean

Sean

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Until testing becomes widespread and commonplace, it's all just conjecture at some level. So best to pay closest attention to the experts in the field, and take comments from sports stars, politicians, celebrities, or some guy online with huge grains of salt. The thing that worries me is that, currently, the experts seem quite worried. But you do what you can to make it better and try to avoid actions to make it worse. Think of others is the most appropriate action right now.

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SENC

SENC

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Until testing becomes widespread and commonplace, it's all just conjecture at some level. So best to pay closest attention to the experts in the field, and take comments from sports stars, politicians, celebrities, or some guy online with huge grains of salt. The thing that worries me is that, currently, the experts seem quite worried. But you do what you can to make it better and try to avoid actions to make it worse. Think of others is the most appropriate action right now.

well said!

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