Kitcat Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) Per the current stock price of $1400, Tesla, which sold 368K vehicles in '19, is worth more than Toyota, which sold over 10M units. And almost as much as Toyota and GM (which sold 7.7M units in '19) combined. I think Tesla has a pretty cool product, and know there are many happy owners here, but that valuation seems absurd. And the prediction is the stock may go to $2100, before gravity starts to pull it back to a more realistic valuation ($300-$700 per share?). Edited July 9, 2020 by Kitcat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokey Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 In tech a company's value is many multiples of EBITDA, often without regard to whether that revenue results in profit. I think tech investors like novelty, bragging rights and the idea of getting in on the bottom floor. To me Tesla is an (extreme) version of this, and with every manner of manufacturer entering the (small) BEV market it is hard to see Tesla having any future dominant role. But then again I didn't buy Tesla so maybe I'm just bitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Not defending the valuation (I think it is absurd), but EBITDA is a profitability measure not a revenue measure, rights? With $3b in EBITDA that puts them at a valuation over 75xEBIDTA, crazy territory in my opinion particularly given their track record. GM has 3-4x that much EBITDA and trades at 6xEBITDA (don't think I'd buy that, either). In my opinion this is a pure speculative bet that Tesla will do what Amazon has done. Amazon now has well over $30b in EBITDA and though still highly valued (over 30xEBITDA) it is down from prior years where it was trading at well into the 100s times EBITDA - in essence it has finally grown profitability to begin to match its value. If Tesla can do the same, though overvalued now it will look cheap in the future. I'm not making that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokey Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Not defending the valuation (I think it is absurd), but EBITDA is a profitability measure not a revenue measure, rights? Yes, sorry, I was sloppily munging things together. I was attempting to say that tech gets big multiples on EBITDA too, and the chase for the next unicorn also results in multiples on revenue without profit. So what makes Tesla unique isn't its valuation but that it has that kind of value in a market that isn't tech. Then again, maybe Tesla really is tech and so this all makes sense! BTW, no criticism intended for anyone who has purchased Tesla stock as you are obviously smarter than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panamericano Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 All true. Remember, Amazon didn't make a profit for YEARS. I thought their stock was crazy, a few years ago Look at them now. Tesla is tech. First real electric cars, which all assume is the direction of the future. Plus, something I read some time ago said Musk is really interested in gaining dominance in the charging industry, for all electric cars. Electricity is probably the most pure of energy transfer we have % wise. But, unless the charging electricity comes from wind, solar, tide, etc, by the time you add pollution from batteries, it is not clean.. The environment is not better off if your juice comes from coal, oil, gas, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokey Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Long ago I worked in the nuclear waste industry and remember thinking it made no sense to talk about the cost of nuclear energy without factoring in the cost of storing the waste indefinitely. I wonder what the social, economic and environmental cost of battery production and disposal is relative to oil extraction and refining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Similarly, as I've watched solar farms sprout where pine farms and corn/bean/tobacco fields once were, I've wondered about the cost of cleanup in 20-25 years. I suspect one day we'll get there with renewables, but I'm not convinced we're there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnCh Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 My high school physics teacher had a favorite acronym: TANSTAFL which stood for there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. People tend to conveniently forget that adage when evaluating various alternative energy sources. That doesn't mean they aren't better, but they ain't perfect. -John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueBDA Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 A Tesla Model 3 Performance matches or out-performs the BMW M3 and the Audi RS3 (and most 7s), and uses the equivalent energy of an ICE car getting 116 mpg. So even if the grid isn't that clean, the energy used to drive the Tesla is responsible for WAY less carbon being emitted into the atmosphere. And the grid will get cleaner with time. Electricity is probably the most pure of energy transfer we have % wise. But, unless the charging electricity comes from wind, solar, tide, etc, by the time you add pollution from batteries, it is not clean.. The environment is not better off if your juice comes from coal, oil, gas, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitcat Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 A corollary to my car-fantasy life is a trailer-fantasy life. And my favorite super cool, overpriced, trailer is the very lightweight and aerodynamic, Bowlus Road Chief. In connection with that, I have followed a blog of one of their owners who tows it with a Tesla 3, and averages around 165 mile per charge. Takes a certain amount of patience and planning, but their trips have lasted many thousands of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesterlamb Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Electric cars are the future. A lot of car companies are starting to build electric versions of their popular vehicles. Like Ford and their F-150. If solid state batteries are ever fully developed, then that is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee break Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Other than the R/C 7, has anyone dared to convert a 7 to battery power only? :blush: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breezy7 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 http://www.electric7.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesterlamb Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Other than the R/C 7, has anyone dared to convert a 7 to battery power only? :blush: Man, that would be a sweet concept. How would one go about "electrifying" a 7? I would imagine that not only is it going to be quiet but it is going to look pretty badass. Would anyone here try betting on their or their friend's engineering skills in converting a 7 to be fully battery powered? Send pics when you are done.:smilielol5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee break Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Lately, Tesla motors are the hot ticket for conversions. There's a shop in Cal. that has a bolt in cradle for some 911's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdl Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 http://fancytuning.com/2011/03/irmscher-7-selectra-electric-concept/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panamericano Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Interesting concept. More details: https://www.topspeed.com/cars/caterham/2011-irmscher-i-selectra-ar105743.html Price = ouch. I can't find WEIGHT anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferdl Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 900kg https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/fahrbericht/irmscher-7-selectra-immer-mit-der-ruhe/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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