Trump on the list? What if? And cookies!

[IamScotticus]

I don't often don the chef hat into this bakery here.  Unless something is burning...  And Im worried about my investments.

My workplace 401K/Roth has its best performing index funds based on the Dow Jones and S&P 500.  Not to impressive, huh?   But its done well this year.

 

However!  What if the SHTF and DJT is found to have had his mits in the Epstien cookie jar as deep as the ex-prince?  How would the markets react?  A good buy opportunity for sure and a quick rebound when the VP is sworn in.  I doubt the VP would stray too far from the current policies, if he wants to stand a chance in ,2028?

 

Im not here to speculate on how much DJT might have gotten into the cookie jar.  He has obviously had his share of easy, if expensive, oatmeal cream pies.  But half-baked cookies is a crime.  Going forward, there will be a full out effort to find any crumbs left behind.  I think its time to go into cash and wait to see how the cookie crumbles.

Thats all the cookie puns I got.

 

Edited November 15, 2025 by IamScotticus

[mrmustang]

Sorry, this is a news story that has already run it's course in regards to the suggested target, I'm really thinking if there was anything that implicated Trump, the Democrats would have leaked it long before the election cycle ran it's course. After all, they had all of the files for years prior.

 

 

 

 

 

[speedwagon]

For the investment purposes,,, the damage is done, the effects are starting to show today will be looked back upon as the second hoover admin. the selling of toys by the lower middle income people is now in process, repo madness isn't far behind. will there be a turnaround? the last one took ww2 and we do not have the facilities nor the credit for that. cash should be king, but I see a badly deflating dollar ( inflation without any benefits). What to do?  I do not know. right now I am debt free, and saving $, equity split 20% real estate 40% Berkshire Hathaway, and 40% vanguard VGT. Scared shitless, 84yr old, and looking for a safe haven. Still buying grossly under valued quickly sold stuff with these words to the seller"you should not be selling to me at this price, you can get more with a bit of better marketing" so that they know what i am doing. If this works and I loose 95% during the bust I will still have more than if nothing were done. and what I don't get sold my heirs can sell as antiques if there is a future.   This is not a recommended option  but instead info that may used and modified to what is a good strategy. Cuz I sure do not know.   This may seem political but it is meant to be common sense.   john   PS you sort of asked so you got it. 

[IamScotticus]

2 hours ago, speedwagon said:

you sort of asked so you got it.

Very welcome, thanks.

[Croc]

 

3 hours ago, speedwagon said:

.....the effects are starting to show today will be looked back upon as the second hoover admin. 

 

Calvin Coolidge was President whose policies led to the Depression.  He left office just before the crash.  Hoover inherited the mess and sadly his policies were not up to the task of recovering the economy - I think they prolonged the recession and turned it into a depression.  I would argue we are in the third Coolidge administration (since Coolidge got 1.5 terms in office - he followed Harding who died in office)

 

Otherwise I think you are right - long after we are gone, today will be assessed as the party before the massive crash and recession.

[wdb]

[speedwagon]

Crock; I defer to your better memory of history. I used Hoover as he is the most remembered for serving during it. and yes the root cause can usually be traced back to a few years in history. But almost always caused by uncontrolled greed. And on both sides of the isle I might add. There are virtual no innocents involved. As documentation just research the insider trading done by our executive and congressional branches, not to mention the kangaroo court.  but in the turd pile are a few fine people who actually have the integrity that they would have us believe.  Notice that I did not use the term "moral compass".  but we are in agreement, while I secretly hope we are both wrong.  john        And even if I were in my prime years, there is now way that I WOULD BE A CANDIDATE FOR SOME TIME. Excuse the caps please, it will be an impossible job with very little thanks even if done well.   I used to be a patriot. 

[Croc]

20 hours ago, speedwagon said:

What to do?  I do not know. right now I am debt free, and saving $, equity split 20% real estate 40% Berkshire Hathaway, and 40% vanguard VGT. Scared shitless, 84yr old, and looking for a safe haven. 

 

I would offer as a first suggestion, that as a person overseeing a very large investment portfolio in my day job, if you are scared then its time to leave the market.  Investing should be something you set and monitor but not let it ruin your sleep.  That tells me you have too much investment risk that you are uncomfortable with.

 

The second suggestion is to look at diversifying.  Exclude the real estate, to have an equity portfolio that is 50% Berkshire and 50% Vanguard Tech fund is asking for a black eye when the market inevitably turns down.  Take your gains and put a majority in things that allow you to rest easier.  Look at dividend investing - cash from Dividend Arisocrats, Dividend Dogs, BDCs, energy MLPs, Infrastructure funds, etc.  Plenty of good value-style investments where you can generate solid 10% returns and be protected from market crash downside as cash returns support a stock valuation.  Infrastructure funds are also good to investigate - they never cut tolls in a recession.  If you do not like value investing them pick a growth theme - oil is undervalued so go into quality energy stocks as they pay dividends and are undervalued in a time when electricity generation demand is starting to spike for the next 10+ years.  Anything connected to expending the electrical grid and power output is doing well - the grid has to double over the next 15 years.  While I like Berkshire, I would not have 50% of an investment portfolio in it.  Its underperforming as it has $350B in short term Treasuries right now earning sub 3% in yield.  The day to buy Berkshire is the day of the crash when it stock price has been beaten down but before the Fed cuts interest rates in response to a crash (falling interest rates increases Treasuries/bond values).  Also you mentioned the long term decline of the USD - I agree - the policy is to disconnect the USD as the reserve currency to fix the trade deficit and current account deficit issues.  While I think the policy is stupid - ultimately it means higher interest rates for us, you can get emerging market bond funds (currency unhedged) paying 8% before currency fall tailwind and their credit quality is the same or only 1 credit rating notch lower than US Treasuries.  

 

Most important thing is to live life without feeling like you are going to get slammed when an investment market turns down.  

[MV8]

In positions where conflict of interest is a concern, there are strict investment rules in the branches for career employees who are not appointees or politicians.

[speedwagon]

MV8  you are right.  And these should be extended to include elected positions, and appointees.  (You covered it quite well).

[speedwagon]

CROCK:   I wasn't exactly  being truthful when I said scared shitless. I have lived well over an 120 year equivalent in my 84, and nothing scares me. But there sure is a unknown out there.  AND thanks for the advice, but the real estate is personal and suits me just fine, the other two have served me well for many years. VGT is risky indeed, and Berkshire is too cumbersome to start outperforming the s&p 500 again (although it has surprised me before) My various retirements are SS and well managed by real fiduciary s.  My assessment recently was that I could hop a shuttle to the airport with my passport, fly to Oaxaca city rent a place near the square and live well till the end.  But I have been looking int at least one alternative to VGT that performs better now and is not so loaded with tech. and is actively managed. My options are open for BRK-B but I am not risk reluctant, but wish to be isolated to down turns as best as possible my last two helpers there, were Michal J Price and Peter Lynch.    But your options bear looking into even the on the risk/reward ratio I am always able to go for the reward long time.  If I am still here in five years we will look back.  john

[IamScotticus]

Invest in title loan businesses.  No shortage of people who make bad decisions.

[speedwagon]

AS a PS  I think the biggest risk today is the dollar itself.  In Mexico- never a peso account except for pocket money, but instead an equity account that didn't depreciate with the peso. USA is now a third world country (and not a fast developing one at that). 

[speedwagon]

8 minutes ago, IamScotticus said:

Invest in title loan businesses.  No shortage of people who make bad decisions.

I have a few titles that are worth a lot less in the last 6 months.

[Vovchandr]

We might need an independent 401k advice thread going. There are lots of people with lots of experience that can help lots of other people on the forum that aren't nowhere near into that financial field.

 

Currently my 401k is just in a target fund of set it and forget it.

 

On the other hand my SPY leap calls were doing good for a minute but market has been a bit fickle this past week..

[IamScotticus]

Mike, thanks for your sage advice.  I'm taking notes. 🤑🤑🫡

[IamScotticus]

Lost of good discussion here.  Very smart people here. I appreciate it all.

 

My intention of this topic is to encourage opinions as to the prospects of the current Epstien situation creating a short term market sell-off significant enough to justify being in cash for.  For those who can move to cash without too much loss.

 

Market timing is never advisable for long term strategy, we all agree.  But there are situations one can take advantage of.  As New Coke (famous bad decision) gave Buffett an opportunity to buy Coca-Cola, is the Epstien cookie jar association (really bad decision) a good reason to be in cash?  And for how long?

 

I think there is a good case for cash here but I don't have time to do the research and, strangely, I don't want those names all over my browser cache and digital footprint from the research.   I assure you there is no tin foil hat going on here.  A condition of government employment is the scrutinizing of all my communications.

Therefore I'm looking for the opinions of others.  Yes, you.

[Croc]

1 hour ago, Vovchandr said:

Currently my 401k is just in a target fund of set it and forget it.

 

A target fund is ok but a lazy approach and most people do not understand how they work once you reach 50 - not all target date funds are the same.  The best investment you can make for yourself is learning how to manage your money.  Get a subscription to Kiplinger and read it.  They keep it simple.  They take a broad brush to personal financial life so make you think managing taxes, investment allocation, maximizing employer matches, government benefits, health insurance, estate planning, life/disability insurance, etc.  If you want to read further and invest like Warren Buffet (or Charlie Munger, who I think was the better investor) then read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.  Its older than me but the principles still work today - the Dividend Dogs investment strategy is just a subset variation of Graham's thinking on value investing style.  

 

You can pay a lot of money to professional financial advisors and the results can be disappointing.  Senior management at my company get a paid financial planner service to assist them investing their personal brokerage/401K/NQ plan/etc. I took the service to evaluate it and I found it a waste as they were partly trying to sell me into their products which come with expensive costs.  You would do better by using a magazine like Kiplinger to educate yourself and laser focus on minimizing costs and taxes.  

 

Most people go super aggressive on investing to try to "win" big and they fail because the ups and downs over 10 years cancel themselves out.  The sensible goal is to aim for a consistent 7% annual average over 10 years.  If you do that you double your money every 10 years.  Consistency of return over long term means more than big return/down years due to the way compound interest works.   You do not have to take massive risk positions to achieve that modest goal.  Everyone tells me they are great at investing but when I look at their records you always see they forgot their down loss years or were paying short term cap gains tax from not taking a long term approach to investing.  

 

Anyway back to Epstein.  

 

 

[panamericano]

"My intention of this topic is to encourage opinions as to the prospects of the current Epstien situation creating a short term ..."

 

I know so little of finances, so yield to bigger minds and pros.  But, @IamScotticus, Trump, Epstein, etc. are nothing related to our current "bubble."  In the end, for every famous republican caught, there will be an equal democrat.  Power, money and position subvert (pervert) (corrupt?) equally.  In the end it's a wash.  I think the public, if watching, likes the spectacle, but won't really react in any way related to business.  DJT's lewdness is already well known.

 

Fat figures hit Bold?

[speedwagon]

Listen to CROCK!!!  I will add a bit   401k or IRA if you are in a lower tax bracket, for any reason ( I too a couple of years off) move your 401k to an IRA and then move as much as you feel comfortable PAYING THE TAXES on,  into a Roth IRA where it will avoid taxes on gains, and any time you can afford the taxes put all you can into it.   Talk to an accountant about the rules for this action if you cannot learn yourself, as there are some pitfalls. But the larger percent you have of your wealth in a Roth IRA the better off you will be.  As for what to buy--- something you can understand (not a fad) and would be confident that it would survive a long downturn ( you do not want an ENRON).   I would shoot for 20% gain long-term but as Crock said be happy with 10% you will still be ahead of the average.  For the timid investigate the Vanguard company mutual funds (vanguard is investor owned, much like a credit union )  If any adviser advertises $$ heavily avoid. DO NOT Listen to any of the yokels on TV ( they want your money).  this is my take and should be taken as just that  I am not rich, just OK, not real smart just curious, and have lost a lot at times, but managed to keep a bit.  And this is the most helpful web site that I have encountered, because of the people.